Robinhood has long been associated with low-cost stock trading and retail crypto, but its next growth chapter may look less like a traditional brokerage and more like a consumer app for real-time financial speculation. Bernstein analysts recently raised their revenue estimates for HOOD through 2026 and 2028, while keeping the price target unchanged at $160. The most interesting part of the forecast is not just the top-line uplift, but the role of prediction markets: an area Bernstein sees as capable of adding about $1.7 billion to revenue and potentially outperforming Robinhood’s crypto business by 2028.
Why Prediction Markets Are a Different Growth Story
Prediction markets are simple in concept: users buy and sell contracts tied to the outcome of future events. Those events can range from elections and economic data releases to sports results, cultural moments, and even business developments. What makes them attractive is that they turn uncertainty into a tradable asset, allowing participants to express views without needing to own the underlying company, currency, or commodity.
For Robinhood, that is a meaningful shift. The company has spent the last several years trying to expand beyond a familiar fintech playbook that leaned heavily on trading commissions, interest income, and crypto-related activity. Prediction markets give the platform a way to attract users who may not be actively trading equities every day, but still want to engage with the market in a more event-driven, lower-friction way.
How Prediction Markets Fit Robinhood’s Strategy
Robinhood already has a large retail investor base, a mobile-first interface, and a brand that is strongly associated with accessibility. Prediction markets fit naturally into that ecosystem because they lower the conceptual barrier to entry. Instead of asking users to analyze balance sheets or technical charts, the product frames investing around questions people already follow.
That matters because retail participation is not just about stock ownership anymore. It is about engagement. If Robinhood can keep users open to the app more frequently, it creates opportunities for cross-selling, higher trading volume, and stronger wallet share. A prediction market product can act as a gateway feature, bringing in a broader audience than traditional brokerage tools might.
What Bernstein’s Revised View Suggests
The fact that Bernstein raised its revenue estimates through both 2026 and 2028 suggests the firm is not treating prediction markets as a one-off experiment. Instead, it appears to be modeling them as a durable revenue stream. The $1.7 billion figure is significant because it points to a business line that could become material enough to influence Robinhood’s overall financial trajectory.
At the same time, the unchanged $160 price target is worth noting. It implies that while the analysts are more bullish on the revenue outlook, they are not necessarily arguing that the stock is dramatically undervalued at current levels. In other words, the upgrade in estimates reflects confidence in the business model, but the valuation debate is still alive.
Why Prediction Markets Could Outpace Crypto
Robinhood’s crypto business has been a major part of its identity, but it has also been exposed to some of the most volatile swings in the digital asset market. Crypto revenue can spike during bullish cycles and fade quickly when sentiment cools. Prediction markets, by contrast, may offer a more diversified revenue engine because they are not tied to the price of a single asset class.
There are also structural reasons prediction markets could grow faster. Crypto trading is often driven by macro sentiment, regulatory headlines, and speculative momentum. Prediction markets, however, benefit from a broader range of catalysts: elections, central bank decisions, earnings events, sports seasons, pop culture moments, and geopolitical developments. That means the product can stay relevant even when crypto is quiet.
Another factor is user behavior. Many people are more comfortable placing a small, event-based bet than committing capital to a volatile digital asset. That lower psychological barrier could help Robinhood convert casual users into more active participants, increasing both engagement and fee-based revenue.
The Risks Behind the Bull Case
Of course, the bull case for prediction markets is not without challenges. The biggest issue is regulation. Prediction markets sit in a gray area between betting, derivatives, and trading, and regulators in different jurisdictions may treat them differently. Any ambiguity around legality, consumer protection, or market integrity could slow expansion or limit product design.
Robinhood would also need to manage liquidity, settlement, and dispute resolution. If users are trading contracts tied to real-world outcomes, the platform must be able to define those outcomes clearly and enforce them in a way that feels fair. A single high-profile controversy over how a market was settled could damage trust, and trust is one of the most important assets a financial platform can have.
Competition is another factor. Prediction markets are no longer a niche idea. Other platforms are already building similar products, and the consumer attention economy is crowded. For Robinhood to reach the revenue levels Bernstein is forecasting, it will need not only to launch a product, but to make it one that users return to repeatedly.
What to Watch Next
- Revenue disclosure: How much of Robinhood’s reported income is explicitly tied to prediction markets will be important for validating the $1.7 billion estimate.
- Regulatory clarity: The speed and scope of expansion will depend heavily on how regulators view event-based trading products.
- User engagement: If prediction markets become a recurring source of volume, the growth case becomes much stronger.
- Crypto comparison: Whether prediction markets can truly outperform crypto by 2028 will depend on both the strength of the new product and the broader digital asset cycle.
Bottom Line
Bernstein’s upgraded revenue estimates suggest that Robinhood may be entering a phase where its growth is no longer defined by a single asset class. Prediction markets could become one of the company’s most important new revenue drivers, especially if they help broaden the user base and increase platform engagement. The $1.7 billion figure is ambitious, but in a market where consumer attention is the real prize, it is not entirely out of reach. For investors, the key question is whether Robinhood can turn this promising product category into a reliable, scalable business rather than a short-lived experiment.
Related read: Robinhood’s Prediction Markets Could Add $1.7 Billion in Revenue by 2028, Bernstein Says
