Robinhood’s Prediction Markets Could Add $1.7 Billion in Revenue by 2028, Bernstein Says

Robinhood’s Prediction-Market Ambitions Could Become a Major Revenue Driver

Robinhood may be positioning itself for a significant new phase of growth as prediction markets emerge as one of the most important contributors to the trading platform’s future revenue. Analysts at Bernstein have raised their revenue estimates for Robinhood, known by its stock ticker HOOD, through 2026 and 2028, citing the potential expansion of prediction-market activity.

According to Bernstein’s updated outlook, prediction markets could add approximately $1.7 billion in revenue to Robinhood by 2028. The analysts also expect this business to generate more revenue than Robinhood’s crypto operations over the same period. Despite the more optimistic revenue forecast, Bernstein kept its price target for Robinhood unchanged at $160 per share.

Why Prediction Markets Matter to Robinhood

Prediction markets allow users to trade contracts linked to the outcome of future events. These events can include elections, economic data releases, interest-rate decisions, sports results, or other measurable developments. Rather than simply buying or selling a traditional security, participants take positions based on what they believe will happen.

For Robinhood, the appeal of prediction markets is clear. The company already operates a digital-first platform designed to make trading accessible to a broad audience. Its customer base is familiar with mobile investing, real-time pricing, and products that allow users to express views on market developments. Prediction markets could give those customers another reason to open the app regularly and remain active between major investing events.

The product may also complement Robinhood’s existing offerings. A customer who trades stocks, options, or cryptocurrencies could potentially use prediction markets to take positions on topics that affect financial markets. This creates opportunities for additional engagement, transaction activity, and revenue without requiring the company to rely exclusively on traditional securities trading.

Prediction Markets Could Outpace Crypto Revenue

Crypto has been an important part of Robinhood’s growth strategy, particularly during periods of strong digital-asset activity. Cryptocurrency trading can generate substantial transaction revenue when prices are moving sharply and customer participation rises. However, crypto revenue can also be highly cyclical, with activity often falling during quieter market conditions.

Bernstein’s forecast suggests that prediction markets could eventually become a larger and more dependable business for Robinhood than crypto. The estimate of $1.7 billion in potential revenue by 2028 reflects expectations that the company can expand the product, attract more users, and build a broader range of markets.

This does not necessarily mean that Robinhood is abandoning cryptocurrency. Instead, the projections highlight the company’s effort to diversify its revenue sources. A broader mix of products may help reduce the impact of slowdowns in any single business line and give Robinhood more ways to monetize customer activity.

Higher Estimates, Unchanged Price Target

Bernstein’s decision to raise Robinhood’s revenue estimates through 2026 and 2028 signals greater confidence in the company’s growth potential. However, keeping the price target at $160 indicates that revenue growth is only one factor in the valuation process.

Analysts may also consider operating costs, regulatory requirements, valuation multiples, profitability, market volatility, and the pace at which new products become commercially meaningful. Stronger revenue does not automatically translate into a higher share-price target if the market has already reflected much of the expected growth or if additional expenses rise alongside sales.

The unchanged target therefore presents a balanced view. Bernstein appears more optimistic about Robinhood’s ability to generate revenue, while remaining cautious about how that growth should be valued in the stock market.

Regulation and Execution Remain Important Risks

Prediction markets may offer Robinhood a substantial opportunity, but the business is not without challenges. Regulatory treatment is likely to be one of the most important considerations. Rules governing event-based contracts can vary depending on the type of market, the jurisdiction, and the underlying event. Changes in regulation could affect which products Robinhood is allowed to offer and how they are structured.

The company must also manage customer-protection concerns. Prediction markets can be easy to understand at a basic level, but participants may still underestimate the risks involved. Clear disclosures, suitable account safeguards, and responsible product design will be essential as Robinhood expands the category.

Competition is another factor. Other financial platforms and specialized prediction-market providers may seek to attract the same customers. Robinhood’s brand, user interface, and existing customer base could provide an advantage, but long-term success will depend on the quality and variety of its available markets.

What Investors Should Watch

Investors evaluating Robinhood’s prediction-market opportunity should monitor several indicators over the next few years:

User participation: Growth in active customers using prediction products will show whether interest is broadening beyond early adopters.
Trading activity: Contract volume and repeat usage will help indicate whether the product can generate consistent revenue.
Product expansion: A wider range of markets could increase engagement, provided expansion remains compliant with applicable rules.
Profitability: Revenue growth will be more valuable if it translates into stronger margins and cash flow.
Regulatory developments: New rules or enforcement actions could materially influence the product’s potential.

The Bigger Picture for HOOD

Robinhood’s predicted growth in prediction markets illustrates how financial platforms are evolving beyond conventional stock and cryptocurrency trading. Customers increasingly expect a single application to offer access to multiple forms of market participation, and companies are competing to provide that broader experience.

If Bernstein’s forecast proves accurate, prediction markets could become a central pillar of Robinhood’s business by 2028, contributing more revenue than crypto and helping diversify the company’s growth engine. Still, the estimate depends on successful execution, sustained customer demand, and a regulatory environment that permits continued expansion.

For now, Bernstein’s revised revenue outlook offers a positive signal for Robinhood’s long-term strategy, while the unchanged $160 price target reflects the need for investors to weigh opportunity against valuation and risk. The company’s progress in prediction markets will likely be an important theme to watch as Robinhood works to build its next phase of growth.